Performance Commentary

Equity World

Global stock markets blithely continued their upward trend at the beginning of the quarter. However, investor sentiment was no longer quite as exuberant as before and definitely tipped into negative territory in September. Emerging inflation concerns are increasingly putting central banks under pressure to rein in their ultra-loose monetary policy. For the time being, it is only a matter of reducing the monthly liquidity injections (an interest rate hike is not expected for another year), but this was enough to spoil the mood of investors. In particular, stocks with high valuations lost ground towards the end of Q3. In parallel, risk indicators also rose somewhat.

Initially rising, then falling prices and some volatility flaring up again and again ensured a positive return for our risk-based strategies in Q3 - slightly ahead or behind the benchmark, depending on the fund and share class. Overall, market risk indicators rose only marginally and remain below the long-term average. The fact that a larger outperformance could not be achieved in negative September was mainly due to the fact that investors did not significantly increase their exposure to more defensive stocks despite increased market risks.

With the exception of the USD, most major currencies depreciated somewhat against the CHF in Q3. As a result, share classes with currency hedging ended the quarter with a higher return than those without hedging.

Equity Emerging Markets

The prospects of an end to ultra-loose monetary policy did not stop at the emerging markets. But the main driver in this investment universe was definitely China. Weakening economic growth, government interventionism, and now the stumbling real estate giant Evergrande have all weighed on Chinese equities recently.

The market dynamics and risk perception of investors differed significantly from the industrialized countries in Q3. The clearly negative price development in combination with increasing volatility provided an advantage for our risk-optimized portfolio. In China in particular, we were able to limit the damage considerably thanks to defensive positioning. The fund even closed Q3 slightly positive, outperforming the market by more than 8%.

Equity Switzerland

As in most industrialized countries, the Swiss stock market continued its upward trend until mid-Q3. By mid-August, the SPI had gained 20% since the beginning of the year, making it one of the strongest equity markets worldwide. However, in the emerging turmoil, for once it could not distinguish itself as a safe haven: Since the aforementioned peak, the SPI lost more than 6% until the end of September, making it one of the biggest losers in September.

How so? Emerging concerns about higher interest rates weighed particularly on more expensive quality stocks. And there are many of these in Switzerland. Our risk-optimized approach also favors companies with strong balance sheets, high profitability and the associated lower volatility of the stock. This was ultimately the main reason why our risk-optimized fund slightly underperformed the broad market in the final accounts. Since the beginning of the year, however, our strategy is still ahead of the SPI.

Equity Europe ex Switzerland

The picture in the rest of Europe was similar to that in Switzerland. The negative sentiment as of mid-Q3 weighed most heavily on supposedly defensive quality stocks. As a result, our risk-optimized strategy, which is heavily exposed to such stocks, struggled to keep pace with the capital-weighted benchmark in what was actually a favorable market environment (negative price performance - rising volatility). Over the whole of the last quarter, it ended up virtually on par with the benchmark.

Most European currencies depreciated against the CHF in Q3. The performance of the fund class with currency hedging was therefore better.

Equity USA

In the first two months of the third quarter, it was business as usual and stocks knew only one direction: up. Declining economic momentum, inflation concerns and an imminent departure from the Fed's ultra-loose monetary policy increasingly caused headaches for investors in September. This was also accompanied by rising volatility.

Positive price developments and low volatility at the beginning of Q3 meant that our risk-based strategy was unable to keep pace with the benchmark. This gap was reduced somewhat in negative September, but not enough to overtake the market index. Outperformance in the downward phase was lower than usual: Investors did not seek the classic low volatility stocks, but rather fled into liquidity or lower priced equities.

The USD strengthened somewhat against the CHF, resulting in a slightly better performance of the fund class without hedging (in CHF -1.34% vs. -2.47%).

Foreign currency bonds (CHF hedged)

Inflation concerns and the associated prospects of an imminent "tapering" (reduction of monthly bond purchases) by the U.S. Federal Reserve caused yield curves to rise worldwide. Accordingly, the bond markets came under pressure - above all securities with longer maturities.

The rise in interest rates was most pronounced in GBP, AUD and CAD - our government bond funds are overweighted in all three interest rate areas compared with the index. Once again, there was virtually no change in Japanese government bonds, which we do not hold in the portfolio due to our strict creditworthiness criteria. These two factors weighed on performance. On the other hand, the shorter duration of our funds compared with the benchmark had a positive effect. Nevertheless, both the long duration fund and the mid duration fund lagged slightly behind the benchmark in the quarterly statement.

Bonds CHF

CHF interest rates rose during the quarter - especially for longer maturities. However, the yield curve remains in negative territory. Inflation and interest rate dynamics of the CHF mirror those of the EUR. The SNB is thus still tied to the ECB's monetary policy. Even though long-term interest rates are approaching the 0% mark, the short-term interest rate remains firmly anchored at -0.75%. No deviation from this policy is currently foreseeable. However, the SNB is increasingly concerned about the impact on the real estate market.

In Q3, bonds with high credit ratings lost ground worldwide - including CHF bonds. Thanks to its lower duration, our fund was able to limit its losses, particularly during the phase of the major rise in interest rates in September. In the quarterly statement, the fund return was at benchmark level.

Mixed fund Smart Invest 65

Our mixed fund with 65% equities ended Q3 in negative territory, but slightly better than the benchmark index (with 40% equities). Negative equity and bond markets weighed on performance in September and wiped out the attractive return from the previous two months. On the other hand, the higher currency hedging had a positive effect, as most major currencies lost value against the CHF.

Mixed fund Smart Invest Dynamic

The equity allocation in our balanced fund with dynamic allocation hovered around 90% in Q3. The allocation effect was positive - thanks to the high equity allocation and the substitution of bonds. However, the selection within equities and the timing of the build-up of individual positions was unfortunately not favorable. The result was a negative performance over Q3.