Performance Commentary

Equity World

After a subdued start in January, the equity markets continued their upward trend from last year in Q1 2021. The MSCI World (in CHF) gained more than 11%. In particular, March showed a very strong performance. Side noises such as rising interest rates or hedge fund bankruptcies did not have much impact on the overall market, while positive economic data and further economic stimulus packages worth billions were very well received. This price fireworks was accompanied by diminishing risk indicators.

In this market environment, risk-based strategies usually underperform the capital-weighted benchmark. This was also the case in Q1. Our Equity World funds lagged the benchmark, especially in February, but regained ground in March. Technology growth stocks, which dominated the market in 2020, were less in demand - positive for our approach, which tends to favor other characteristics.

In Q1, however, foreign currencies also had an important say. Almost all major currencies gained significantly against the CHF. Our significant underweight in the US market also meant that we were less able to benefit from the strengthening USD. However, as other overweighted currencies (e.g. CAD, AUD, GBP) also gained, this effect was not as significant in the final accounts. The fund classes without currency hedging also performed significantly better in Q1 than their counterparts with hedging due to the depreciation of the CHF.  

Equity Emerging Markets

Rising interest rates in the industrialized countries usually do not bode well for emerging market equities. "Domestic" (fixed-income) investments are becoming more attractive again compared to riskier investments in emerging markets. The shifts reinforce the rise of major currencies such as USD or GBP. A strong greenback in particular puts additional pressure on emerging markets, as many countries and companies are indebted in USD.

The MSCI Emerging Markets rose significantly until mid-February, but then could no longer keep pace with the industrialized countries. Volatility also increased in the second half of the quarter.

Our relative fund performance can also be divided into two phases. At the beginning of the year, our risk-based strategy was unable to keep pace with the capital-weighted index and lagged significantly at times. From mid-February onwards, the tide turned and we were able to recover a large part of the underperformance and end the quarter clearly in the black.

Equity Switzerland

After a two-month sideways phase at the beginning of the year, the Swiss stock market rose significantly in March. In addition to the brighter global economic outlook, the Swiss export industry in particular can look forward to a weakened CHF. All this took place with relatively stable volatility.

Our Equity Switzerland fund clearly outperformed the SPI in the final accounts and closed Q1 with a plus of 6.42%. Especially March was a record-breaking month. Not only did we achieve the best monthly return since inception, but we even managed to outperform the SPI by more than 2.5%.

Two stocks were particularly in focus. On the one hand, our largest overweight - Kühne & Nagel - benefited from its extremely strong performance (+26% in March), while on the other hand, the biggest loser - Credit Suisse - was not even included in our selection. But even without these two special effects, we would still have outperformed.

Equity Europe ex Switzerland

In Europe, too, investors did not hold back with additional purchases. The outlook currently looks too rosy not to be there: the end of the pandemic, pent-up demand for consumption, large economic stimulus packages, cheap capital, and declining market risks to boot.

Strong positive price performance and declining volatility - in this market regime, it is difficult for our risk-based approach to keep up with the benchmark. As a result, our fund also clearly lagged behind the benchmark.

Both EUR and GBP gained against CHF in Q1. The performance of the fund class without currency hedging was therefore clearly better.

Equity USA

Spurred on by positive economic prospects and the necessary tailwind in the form of a trillion-dollar infrastructure package from President Biden, the U.S. markets put on a veritable fireworks display. In March, the S&P 500 also set a new record. The strong quarterly performance was accompanied by declining risk indicators. This time, however, the main drivers were not megatechs such as Apple, Amazon or Facebook, but rather companies and sectors that still had catch-up potential in terms of valuation - e.g. industrials, energy or financials.

The strongly positive market environment combined with declining volatility does not really speak in favor of our risk-biased approach. As a result, our fund significantly underperformed the MSCI USA in the middle of the quarter, but was able to recover a large part of the underperformance in March and closed Q1 only slightly more than 1% behind the benchmark.

The strong USD resulted in the fund class without hedging significantly outperforming (in CHF +10.72% vs. +4.13%).

Foreign currency bonds (CHF hedged)

The global rise in yield curves continued in Q1 2021. There was a lot of movement at the long end in particular. In addition to the USD yield curve, the CAD, AUD and GBP curves in particular steepened significantly. The euro area participated in this movement in a weakened form, Japan - as usual - practically not at all.

Our two government bond funds with medium ("Mid Term") and long ("Long Term") duration were also unable to escape the negative price development and closed the quarter in the red. The fund with longer duration lost significantly more ground due to the steepening of the yield curves. Although the losses were limited due to the lower duration compared to the benchmark and the large underweight in the USD interest rate area, the long term fund still lagged behind the benchmark index at the end of the quarter. This was due to the fact that interest rates in CAD, AUD and GBP (where we are overweighted) rose at a similar rate as in the USD. In addition, we do not hold any Japanese government bonds (exclusion due to violated credit rating requirements), which were able to stabilize the benchmark somewhat in this environment. 

Bonds CHF

In Switzerland, too, interest rates rose somewhat at the long end. However, the extent was limited compared with other countries. The shorter duration of our fund kept the portfolio relatively stable. The result was a slight loss of -0.40% in Q1, outperforming the market index by 80 basis points.

Mixed fund Smart Invest 65

Our mixed fund with 65% equities closed Q1 virtually on a par with the benchmark index (with 40% equities). The higher equity allocation was a big plus in this positive market environment with positive equity and negative bond markets. However, this effect was largely neutralized by the underperformance in the "Equity World ex CH" and "Equity Emerging Markets" building blocks as well as the strong foreign currency performance. The foreign currency exposure in our fund is hedged to a greater extent than in the benchmark. 

Mixed fund Smart Invest Dynamic

The equity allocation in our mixed fund with dynamic allocation increased to around 90% during the quarter (in parallel with the decreasing market risk). The high equity allocation benefited the fund's performance in two ways: first, equities performed very strongly in March, from which the fund benefited significantly; second, the low bond allocation minimized the negative performance contribution of bonds in Q1. Exactly 12 months after the largest negative return, the fund achieved in March its best return since inception. While the losses of 2020 have not been erased, the Q1 performance is a very pleasing result for our investors.